Hi Scott,
fir plywood has a shear strength of about 400 pounds per square inch in the weak direction across the grain. When calculating strength of the bond to the hull, this is probably the weakest link. When gluing to the hull there are a lot of uncertainties such as "is the whole area properly bonded, no gaps", "Is the hull properly prepared so that the bond is as strong as the glue", so I would use a value of 100 pounds per square inch of the contact area to the hull.
To approximate the lateral force at the step multiply the sail area in feet by the distance from the deck to the center of area in feet; then divide by the distance from the deck to the mast step in feet. The wind pressure on the sail at 20 miles per hour (approximately 16 knots) is one pound per square foot, since you will generally be reefing the sail above this wind speed, this is the maximum force on the sail.
So if the lateral force at the step is 1,000 pounds then the step area in contact with the hull should be 100 square inches minimum. Anything more adds to the safety factor and peace of mind!!
All the best with the project.
David.