Slieve’s tale on testsailing in F8 is a reminder: In such conditions, Big is Beautiful when it comes to tacking to windward. As long as the crew can handle the rig, a big boat can make progress to windward and tack quite smartly, where lighter, smaller boats have to heave to or something.
I think that the junk rig has a huge advantage over most other rigs in the conditions Slieve describes: It is so easy to raise and lower a panel to see what area the boat can take. The lack of deck work and noise from a flogging headsail makes the whole situation much less scary.
My light 6.5m/750kg unballasted Frøken Sørensen demonstrated this scale effect frequently: With only me on board, F5 was a 3-panel wind, and the only time I went out in F6 or something, I found, after some wild gusts, that two panel were enough. Even then, I managed to tack, on only 6sqm sail out of 20, but the water was flat and it would have been impossible out in the open.
(To my defence; the wind was impressive - we ran before quite fast under bare pole, and the crew of the harbour’s leading Albin Express (Clark Kent) skipped that day’s regatta. They didn’t want to “break something”)
I have found that all my junks sail nicely to windward under only three (lightly cambered) panels. They even tack against the sometimes very awkward fjord chop. Three panels makes up about 43% of the full sail area. Even two panels (29%) panels are enough to keep us away from a lee shore. Still, the quick and dependable tacking needed for doing a MOB manoeuvre requires the third panel (depending on the boat design and authority of the rudder).
Scott is trying to settle on a sail area for his boat. How much is too much? I would rather start with the mast. The height of the mast depends on its location on the boat and its weight and windage. The fore-aft location looks very good here. The weight and windage depend on the chosen mast material. I would try to keep the weight below 3.0 or better 2.5% of the boat’s displacement. It is obvious then that a carbon or aluminium mast can be made taller than a wooden mast. With the mast issue settled, one can pile on all the sail area there is room for.
Personally I think I would divide that sail up in seven panels. Reducing the number of panels will just increase the luff and leech spans, and also the load on the remaining battens and on the sail material.
Cheers, Arne