Hi Len,
Very interesting thoughts of you!
If I (very roughly) divide 500 million cycles by the average wave period in the baltic (3s), an aluminium mast should not fail in 48 years - if the mast only has to withstand loads up to 40% of its ultimate tensile strength. What an abstract, theoretical number! Are we able to draw any practical advice from it, except from that life is not endless?
I like your raised question: what do we build for? Promoting is one thing, for sure. But it might not be the main reason for everyone converting to junk rig. For more experimental minded ones, it might be a calculated risk to lose a mast if knowledge can be gained during that process. For others, a reliable cruising rig is priority #1.
Maybe I am stating the obvious here: I think it is important to separate the calculation process from the judging process (sorry for my bad english):
From an engineers view, it is pretty standard to calculate the strength of a free standing mast. No big deal. So, you calculate by material and geometry, you get a number, and if you do it properly, you also get the percentage of unsafety of that number. Also, you don't need to restrict to statical cases, you could also determine dynamic bearable loads, using Woehler line, fatique limits, etc. This I would call the calculation process. Nothing really to discuss here, as it is standard procedure. Again, this number tells you about the bearable loads.
Now it gets interesting, the judging process: how do you judge that number? What do you expect for actual working loads? How does hull shape, sea state, etc. affect the expected working loads? What sailing behaviour, reefing early or late? etc. All this summed up find its way into the "safety factor", or "sea margin".
IMHO, if you want to compare the actual strength of masts to each other, you just compare the calculated bearable loads from the calculation process. This can give you the required base on which to think about in the second step, discussing and deciding on safety factor, sea margins, etc.
Only in this judging process, personal preference should be a factor. One likes it lighter but more wobbly, one likes a sturdy pole. It is all okay, no good or bad here, just a personal decision. However, this should not be blurred into the calculation process!
It would be nice to have a data base of failed masts...
I totally agree! Not only of failed masts, but of working masts, too. Ideally including material properties, all relevant mast scantlings, amount and kind of sailing, hull shape, ship data, etc... And then find someone who wants to do his phd on this data, and share the results :-)
But, if the same manufacture builds in a safety factor of two or three, then it makes sense even if a weaker alloy is used.
I would be very (!) hesitating to transfer the safety factor from my jobs project example to any other material specification. I would find it very optimistic and unrealistic to directly transfer a one-time experience with CRP to general aluminium applications. I only mentioned this example to give a hint about how accurate material properties might (!) be listed.
Cheers,
Paul